Decomposing the Caesarean section trend in Bangladesh (2012-2025): A multivariate Linear Probability Model analysis

Caesarean section prevalence in Bangladesh rose by 32.47 percentage points from 19.48% in 2012 to 51.95% in 2025, with private facilities reaching 85.12%.

• Why it matters: The WHO’s recommended 10%–15% target is far exceeded, and cross-sectional analyses can’t separate population change from shifting provider behavior behind the surge.
• What they did: Using Bangladesh MICS 2012–2013, 2019, and 2024–2025 (26,534 women; complete-case N=16,179), a survey-weighted multivariate Linear Probability Model Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition separated compositional endowments from behavioral coefficients.
• The result: 87.77% of the increase is linked to compositional shifts (12.23% behavioral), with fewer zero-ANC pregnancies (35.52% to 8.12%) explaining 49.04% and more private/NGO use (18.20% to 54.36%) explaining 43.39%, while fetal macrosomia contributed less than 1%.

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