Size of the 2026 Ebola outbreak and risk of cross-border spillover from Bundibugyo virus in Ituri Province, DR Congo, and its implications for preparedness: a recalibrated stochastic modelling study.

A recalibrated stochastic SEIRD model for the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in DR Congo (Ituri) projects a median of 990 cumulative confirmed cases by week 12.

• Why it matters: Rapidly evolving laboratory-confirmed reporting and cross-border movement create a preparedness gap for estimating outbreak trajectory and spillover risk to neighboring countries.
• What they did: The team calibrated an ensemble SEIRD model to laboratory-confirmed cases, anchoring on 598 cumulative confirmed cases on June 8, 2026 (day 68), then used a linked daily-hazard spillover model over 12 weeks for Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi.
• The result: Under the central scenario, the 90% prediction interval is 709–1293 confirmed cases with 174 deaths, and spillover importation probability is 94.2% for Uganda, 69.3% for South Sudan, 8.6% for Rwanda, and 2.0% for Burundi.

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