Ocean current models predict spatial structure for coastal biodiversity

Ocean-current larval dispersal modeling predicts neutral genomic diversity in a passively dispersed coastal species, with ancestry shaped by nearest upstream “lineage source regions” and sharp transitions.

• Why it matters: Environmental covariates can obscure how much diversity patterns reflect neutral processes, limiting predictions of population and community resilience across space and novel stressors.
• What they did: The study uses an individual-based ocean-current larval model to forecast neutral genomic diversity, then tests predictions against an empirical population genomic survey of Geukensia demissa.
• The result: Model performance is quantitatively validated, updating baseline expectations from classic isolation-by-distance to the lineage source region framework and enabling spatially explicit coastal ancestry predictions.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.