Canada's loss of measles elimination after 27 years: a mathematical modelling analysis of the five major provincial outbreak waves in 2025-2026

Alberta’s 2026 measles wave had the highest modeled transmission intensity (R0,eff = 2.1) alongside the shortest doubling time (2.1 weeks) and peak duration (FWHM = 9.7 weeks).

• Why it matters: Provincial incidence alone can’t separate rapid spread in a small susceptible group from spread involving a larger susceptible population, limiting how outbreak waves are compared for planning.
• What they did: Weekly measles incidence data were fit with a common SEIR model (latent 10 days, infectious 8 days) for Ontario 2025 and Alberta/Manitoba 2025–2026, estimating R0,eff, S0,eff, and early-growth metrics including doubling time and peak FWHM.
• The result: The fitted parameters quantify transmission intensity, epidemic pace, peak duration, and effective susceptible population, enabling comparisons across provincial waves and informing timing and scale of public-health responses.

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