Bureaucratic incentives shaped effectiveness of the one-child policy in China.

Strengthening bureaucratic incentives under China’s one-vote veto policy is linked to nearly half of the total fertility rate decline during the 1990s, pushing fertility below replacement.

• Why it matters: Prior work suggests population policies explain little of global fertility decline, yet China’s fertility dropped sharply in the early 1990s after minimal change in 1979–1980.
• What they did: Using provincial variation in implementation timing, the study estimates how the one-vote veto—prohibiting career advancement for adherence failure—shaped enforcement and contraception use, especially intrauterine devices recommended by local officials.
• The result: The one-vote veto explains nearly half of the 1990s total fertility rate decline, with increased intrauterine device use particularly salient, implying stricter enforcement contributed more to low fertility than prior research suggested.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.