An agent-based model of Epstein-Barr virus transmission and vaccination

A first population-level agent-based model of Epstein-Barr virus transmission using 10,000 agents, calibrated to US age-specific seroprevalence, shows vaccine durability can be as critical as efficacy.

• Why it matters: Population-level transmission modeling for EBV is limited despite EBV infecting over 90% of adults worldwide and driving infectious mononucleosis and multiple malignancies.
• What they did: The authors built an ABM and calibrated it to US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey seroprevalence using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Bayesian Optimization with Expected Quantile Improvement, then ran a 100-year vaccination projection.
• The result: Hypothetical EBV vaccines can shift IM burden to older ages, and with a longer horizon this shift becomes a durable equilibrium change; dual efficacy against EBV infection and IM progression is suggested as the most promising target profile.

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