Projecting Introduction Timelines for Cholera Conjugate Vaccine and Typhoid-Cholera Conjugate Combo Vaccine: A Scenario-Based Forecasting Approach

Median projected time to cholera conjugate vaccine introduction is 6.9 years after WHO prequalification across 39 low- and middle-income countries, with 12 countries adopting within five years.

• Why it matters: Timely planning for cholera and typhoid-cholera conjugate vaccines is constrained by uncertainty about when countries will adopt them and how routine immunization integration barriers may affect uptake.
• What they did: Accelerated failure time models used oral cholera vaccine introduction as a proxy for CCV adoption, standardized with observed post-WHO-prequalification intervals, then projected TCV/CCV pathways using a typhoid-burden and prior-vaccination priority index.
• The result: Gavi eligibility, more prior OCV experience, and higher cholera intensity were linked to earlier CCV introduction, and projected timing did not consistently match routine integration barrier levels, supporting early demand and supply planning.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.