Climate change drives northward range shifts in invasive forest pests and pathogens

Species distribution modelling of 31 major invasive tree pests and pathogens predicts consistent northward range shifts, threatening northern temperate and boreal forests between 2041 and 2080.

• Why it matters: Warming and changing precipitation are expected to reshape where invasive pathogens and pests can persist, but systematic, multi-species projections across diverse hosts are needed to guide preparedness.
• What they did: The study used species distribution modelling to predict current and future distributions under climate change scenarios, with annual mean temperature, warmest-quarter temperature, warmest-quarter precipitation, and driest-month precipitation as key predictors.
• The result: Northward shifts are linked to warming temperatures and moderate precipitation, while some warmer regions (including southern Europe) are expected to see fewer outbreaks, supporting targeted monitoring and biosecurity in northern temperate and boreal forests.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.