Partisan differences in health behaviors can impact respiratory disease dynamics

Republicans in the Berkeley Interpersonal Contacts Study reported significantly more average daily contacts and lower COVID-19 mask use and vaccination than Democrats during the first pandemic year.

• Why it matters: Partisan differences in health behaviors are linked to transmission-relevant actions, but infectious disease models often ignore this heterogeneity, risking biased outbreak forecasts.
• What they did: Using BICS survey data, the authors quantified partisan gaps in contact rates, mask usage, and vaccination, then adapted a partisan-specific SIR model with political homophily to simulate a hypothetical respiratory outbreak.
• The result: The modeled behavior differences produced higher infection and mortality rates and earlier outbreak peaks for simulated Republicans than Democrats, and adding stronger within-group mixing amplified these partisan outcome gaps.

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