Fire risk to U.S. structures nearly triples by mid-century.

Under business-as-usual conditions with no adaptation, structural fire losses across the U.S. are projected to nearly triple by mid-century, with 133,200–449,100 buildings damaged or destroyed.

• Why it matters: Fire risk is rising as climate change, land use, and development expand fire-prone landscapes into areas where people live, increasing the urgency for timely, targeted intervention.
• What they did: The study reconstructs fire risk to structures from 1945–2023 and projects changes through 2060 using high-resolution historical data on area burned, settlement patterns, and fire impacts.
• The result: The West is the epicenter, and 30% of census tracts projected to face the highest fire risk overlap socioeconomic hardship, implying greatest losses may concentrate in vulnerable communities.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.