Future mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants in China under dual-carbon targets: An emission-driven sensitivity assessment integrating machine learning and GEOS-Chem modeling.

Dual-carbon targets could reduce mercury emissions from China's coal-fired power plants by approximately 93% by 2060, significantly lowering atmospheric mercury levels.

• Why it matters: Mercury is a highly toxic pollutant threatening ecosystems and human health, and understanding future emission trajectories is crucial for effective policy and environmental protection.
• What they did: An integrated framework combining machine learning with GEOS-Chem modeling was developed, using emission data from 2000-2022 and scenario projections for 2025-2060 to assess future mercury emissions and impacts.
• The result: Findings indicate that China's dual-carbon strategy can lead to major reductions in mercury emissions and atmospheric concentrations, especially in eastern and southern regions, enabling substantial environmental health benefits.