Cardiovascular hospital demand projections for Suriname up to 2050 with implications for health system planning

Projected cardiovascular hospital admissions in Suriname under status quo rise to 62,643 by 2050, while full HEARTS targets reduce them to 27,469.

• Why it matters: Hospital capacity planning for ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease depends on anticipating demand and mortality, yet routine data are not always translated into transparent decision tools.
• What they did: The framework used retrospective discharge data from 2013–2022 from three major public hospitals (about 71.8% of national admissions), fitted log-linear trends across six age groups, and applied UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations across five policy pathways.
• The result: In 2050, projected in-hospital deaths fall from 2,644 under status quo to 1,155 under full HEARTS, and further to 924 when full HEARTS is combined with improved hospital survival.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.