Individualised and Time-Dependent Prediction of Recurrence After Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases Resection

Recalibrated GAME, m-CS, Fong, Nordlinger, Nagashima, Konopke, and Helsinki scores for colorectal cancer liver metastases resection yield time-dependent recurrence-free survival predictions with AUC 0.63–0.74 at 3 years.

• Why it matters: Clinicians need externally validated, individualised recurrence probabilities to benchmark newer prognostic models, because existing clinical risk scores are hard to apply and usually provide only categorical strata.
• What they did: Using recurrence-free survival in 709 patients from the KaroLiver cohort (2013–2021; follow-up to 2025) and external validation in 198 patients from OSLO-COMET (2012–2016; follow-up to 2022), the authors assessed seven established scores and recalibrated them into probabilistic, time-dependent models.
• The result: The recalibrated models showed good predicted–observed agreement and broadly comparable net benefit in OSLO-COMET, and were implemented in PLATO to support patient communication, risk-adapted surveillance, and transparent benchmarking.

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