The Test Used to Choose Between Pesticide Survival Models Tracks Lesion Persistence, Not Hazard Structure

Post-exposure death rates in Gammarus pulex treatments rank anticholinesterases above uncouplers, reflecting lesion persistence rather than distinguishing cumulative versus peak-based hazard structure.

• Why it matters: Model selection in aquatic pesticide risk assessment hinges on a single “clean-water transfer” observation, but that inference assumes damage declines, which these tests do not directly measure.
• What they did: The authors reanalyze published choices and run 32 Gammarus pulex treatments, showing that post-exposure death rate tracks lesion persistence; they also examine diazinon and imidacloprid in Daphnia magna with likelihood comparisons.
• The result: For imidacloprid in Daphnia magna, one damage stage favors the cumulative structure by 78 likelihood units while two stages favor the peak-based structure by 7, and for diazinon verdicts flip across a 16-day window.

AI summary of the abstract · may contain errors · not medical advice · read the paper.