Trajectories of Estimated Glucose Disposal Rate and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Evidence from Two Prospective Cohorts

Persistently low and declining eGDR trajectories are linked to higher incident cardiovascular disease risk versus persistently high trajectories in two prospective cohorts (HRS and ELSA).

• Why it matters: Cumulative eGDR exposure is known to relate to CVD risk, but it is unclear whether longitudinal eGDR patterns add prognostic information beyond that summary measure.
• What they did: Latent class mixed models defined four eGDR trajectory classes across three waves in 4,823 CVD-free adults (HRS n=3,258; ELSA n=1,565), and multivariable Cox models tested incident CVD associations.
• The result: In joint models, trajectory class retained residual prognostic signal, improving fit beyond cumulative average eGDR in HRS, while adding cumulative average eGDR to the trajectory model did not; in HRS, declining-then-rising showed lower risk than declining.

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