Causal Multiscale Modeling of Ocular FLASH Electroretinography: Model Development, Experimental Fitting, and Spin-Glass--Percolation Predictions

A causal multiscale model of ocular FLASH versus CONV ERG predicts a-wave preservation thresholds of 28.6 Gy (FLASH) and 23.7 Gy (CONV) in a 200-module retina network.

• Why it matters: Radiation injury can alter phototransduction and ERG dynamics, but amplitude-only data limit how well network-level contributions can be identified and validated for FLASH.
• What they did: The retina was coarse-grained into N=200 functional modules with Hodgkin–Huxley-inspired conductance-balance/RC rate equations, using an injury field to modify phototransduction, a-/b-wave dynamics, and inter-module coupling.
• The result: The reduced benchmark fit published data with R²=0.9721 and RMSE=11.94 μV, while M0/M1/M2 gave R²≈0.8559, and under a 50% retained-gain criterion predicted b-wave thresholds of 29.2 Gy (FLASH) and 24.1 Gy (CONV), implying a DMF of 1.21.

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