The evolving epidemiology of scrub typhus in Thailand (2003-2024): insights from latent process modelling of national surveillance data

Estimated scrub typhus transmission in Thailand (2003–2024) is highest in northern provinces but also substantial in the northeast and south, with reporting proportions tracking intensity.

• Why it matters: National surveillance has not comprehensively described long-term shifts in reporting, transmission, severity, and seasonality, leaving gaps for region- and age-tailored preparedness.
• What they did: Using a latent process model, the study jointly fit 22 years of national case reports with nationwide seroprevalence and antibody kinetics across all 77 provinces.
• The result: Reporting proportion declined synchronously during COVID-19 and rebounded by 2024; case-fatality in the 25–35 reference group fell from 0.15% to 0.06%, while older adults’ susceptibility increased progressively.

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