Resolving short-term meteorological variability amplifies projected glacier loss and sea-level rise.

Resolving short-term meteorological variability with a daily glacier model predicts up to 25% greater mass loss in Svalbard and 5-10% more global sea-level rise than monthly models.

• Why it matters: Accurate glacier projections are crucial for understanding future sea-level rise, but current models often overlook short-term weather fluctuations that influence glacier mass balance.
• What they did: A daily-resolution version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) was developed and applied globally, comparing its results to a monthly version to assess differences in mass loss predictions.
• The result: The daily model more closely matches observations, predicts 26 ± 10% ice volume loss under low-emission and 47 ± 17% under high-emission scenarios from 2025-2100, and indicates that neglecting short-term variability may underestimate future glacier loss.