Investigating Climate-Driven Disruption of Malaria Transmission Following the 2022 Sindh, Pakistan Floods: An Interrupted Time Series Study

In Sindh, Pakistan, the July 2022 floods were linked to an immediate ~threefold rise in malaria cases (IRR 2.985, 95% CI 1.878–4.751, p<0.001).

• Why it matters: Floods in malaria-endemic settings may create climate-linked conditions that increase transmission risk, but the timing and magnitude of post-flood case surges are not well quantified.
• What they did: Using monthly malaria case incidence in Sindh (2016–2024) with climate data, the study fit a negative binomial GLM with interrupted time series and seasonality terms, adjusting for case momentum.
• The result: After accounting for momentum, the flood onset predicted a sharp, independent increase in cases and implies surveillance should plan for elevated transmission that can persist beyond the initial disruption.

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