The impact of climate variability on dengue virus case incidence in Sindh, Pakistan: Post-2022 flooding.

In Sindh, Pakistan (2020–2025), a 1-month lagged increase in rainfall is linked to higher monthly confirmed dengue incidence, with IRR 1.008 (95% CI 1.003–1.012, p=0.002).

• Why it matters: Flooding and heavy rainfall recur in Pakistan and may shift mosquito habitat and dengue transmission timing, but the specific rainfall timing linked to case surges in Sindh is unclear.
• What they did: The study analyzed monthly confirmed dengue data for Sindh from 2020–2025 using parametric generalized linear models and a generalized additive model, testing lagged rainfall and temperature effects.
• The result: Rainfall one month earlier predicts a 0.8% increase in expected case counts per unit (mm) increase, while lagged temperature terms showed no statistical significance.

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