Global mangrove distribution on the open coast is controlled by waves.

Waves are a primary control on global open-coast mangrove distribution, with a mechanistic model achieving 78.2% accuracy in predicting presence or absence.

• Why it matters: Understanding the factors that determine mangrove locations is crucial for effective management, restoration, and climate adaptation strategies, especially as climate change alters wave conditions.
• What they did: Researchers developed a process-driven model using 20 years of hindcast wave data across 400 coastal sites worldwide to identify conditions favorable for mangrove establishment.
• The result: The findings show that even modest changes in wave forcing can shift mangrove distribution, highlighting the importance of wave climate in predicting and managing mangrove ecosystems amid climate change.