Alternative Host Traits and Transient Dynamics of Focal Host Infection Prevalence

In a two-host ODE model of an environmentally transmitted pathogen, focal host disease prevalence shifts short- and long-term in the same direction when hosts differ in spread ability, but can change nonmonotonically when spread abilities are similar and the lost host is a strong competitor.

• Why it matters: Host community turnover can alter disease levels in remaining hosts, yet the transient dynamics during host loss or introduction are poorly understood.
• What they did: The study simulates an ordinary differential equation model with parameter sets spanning broad parameter space, then applies local and global sensitivity analysis to determine which lost-host traits most affect focal host disease levels.
• The result: The lost host’s birth rate, interspecific competitive ability, pathogen shedding rate, and pathogen uptake rate must be measured precisely for reliable predictions, while precise estimates of infection capacity, recovery rate, and disease mortality rate are only critical in some circumstances.