Long-Term Dynamics of Esca Disease in Western Switzerland

Water balance and seasonal vapor pressure deficit are strongly associated with esca incidence across years in Western Switzerland (2001–2022), while plot-level prediction remains limited.

• Why it matters: Long-term, region-specific evidence is needed to understand esca’s temporal dynamics and to identify climatic drivers that could support forecasting and risk assessment.
• What they did: Agroscope surveyed esca incidence in Western Switzerland from 2001–2022, used a model-independent variable importance algorithm for plot-level associations, and built predictive models using microclimatic weather covariates.
• The result: A slight decreasing trend in esca incidence over 2001–2022 coincided with increasingly dry conditions, suggesting partial association with regional water-balance changes under climate change.