Projected Health and Economic Effects of Expanded Access to Anti-Obesity Medications in Medicare

Expanded Medicare access to GLP-1s for the CMS GLP-1 Bridge-eligible Part D population is projected to generate $44.3–$58.5 billion in positive net social value over 10 years.

• Why it matters: The long-run value of the July 2026–December 2027 CMS GLP-1 Bridge depends on uptake, discontinuation, and who initiates therapy, beyond short demonstration-period outcomes.
• What they did: Using the Future Elderly Model microsimulation of Americans aged 55+, the study compared status quo with two persistence scenarios and broad vs narrow Bridge-eligible definitions over a 10-year horizon.
• The result: Medicare net spending falls in every scenario, with cumulative savings of $21.2–$27.1 billion and diabetes drug price savings of $31.9 billion, yielding 117–216% ROI for Medicare and 198–346% for society.