Forecasting of infectious disease epidemics in sexual networks using attenuated renewal processes.

Attenuated renewal process models outperform alternatives in forecasting mpox outbreaks within MSM sexual networks, achieving more balanced and reliable predictions.

• Why it matters: Accurate epidemic forecasting in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM) is difficult due to complex contact structures and partnership dynamics, which hampers effective public health responses.
• What they did: Researchers used stochastic epidemic simulations on synthetic MSM networks and empirical mpox case data, evaluating five forecasting models with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and found that renewal models with a reverse-sigmoid attenuation curve performed best.
• The result: The study demonstrates that this modeling approach offers a practical, robust method for forecasting in highly overdispersed networks, aiding better epidemic prediction when network effects are difficult to disentangle from other factors.