Phylogenies can be used to predict future diversification but with limited success

Tip rate-variable diversification methods can predict future cladogenesis with limited accuracy, showing variable success across different phylogenies and taxa.

• Why it matters: Accurately forecasting the emergence of new lineages is crucial for understanding macroevolutionary processes, yet the effectiveness of current predictive methods remains untested against real-world data.
• What they did: Researchers applied multiple rate-variable diversification models to empirical fossil and extant phylogenies, using a novel approach akin to generalized linear models to assess predictive capacity.
• The result: Findings reveal that while current tip rate estimates have some predictive power, their success is limited and highly dependent on the specific phylogeny, highlighting the challenges in reliably forecasting future diversification.